Paper Industry to Grow at 6–7% in Next Five Years; Packaging & Tissue to Lead Demand: A.S. Mehta of JK Paper

Paper Industry to Grow at 6–7% in Next Five Years; Packaging & Tissue to Lead Demand: A.S. Mehta of JK Paper

In a detailed and structured address at an Federation of Paper Traders Association of India (FPTA) webinar on “Paper Market Today: Pricing, Supply & What’s Next,” Mr. A. S. Mehta, President of JK Paper Ltd., presented a comprehensive outlook on the paper industry, highlighting demand trends, cost structures, war impact, and the future trajectory of paper segments.

The Pulp and Paper Times

Setting the tone for his analysis, Mr. Mehta emphasized the importance of understanding the paper sector in a structured manner. He noted that while many are familiar with the general outlook, the key lies in identifying the leading factors that provide clues about the future scenario—whether over the next two years or five years. According to him, this analytical approach helps in building a clearer perspective of where the industry is headed.

Importantly, Mr. Mehta clarified that he would not attach too much significance to the current war scenario, describing it as a short-term issue. While acknowledging that geopolitical tensions may have multiple impacts, he stressed that a steady-state outlook provides a more reliable understanding of the industry’s long-term direction.
Overall Industry Growth at 6–7%

Providing a macro view, Mr. Mehta stated that the paper sector is likely to grow at an overall rate of 6–7% over the next five years. However, he cautioned against assuming uniform growth across all segments. According to him, each category within the paper industry will follow its own trajectory, driven by distinct demand dynamics and application trends.

Writing & Printing to See Modest Growth

The writing and printing segment, including maplitho and coated paper, is expected to witness relatively slow growth. Mr. Mehta estimated that this category is likely to grow at around 2–2.5%, and possibly not exceed 2% in real terms. This subdued outlook reflects changing consumption patterns and the gradual shift toward digital alternatives.
Similarly, copier paper or office paper is projected to grow at around 3–4%, with a possible range of 3–5%, but unlikely to cross 4%. The moderate growth indicates stable demand but limited expansion potential in this segment.

Packaging Board Emerges as a Strong Growth Driver

A key highlight of Mr. Mehta’s analysis was the strong growth outlook for packaging board. He projected this segment to grow at 8–9%, driven by multiple factors including the increasing push for sustainability, the transition toward a plastic-free society, and the rise of new-age packaging solutions.

He further explained that evolving distribution systems, changing product delivery mechanisms, and a growing emphasis on packaging aesthetics are contributing to this growth. Both virgin and recycled packaging boards are expected to expand, with minor shifts between the two depending on market dynamics, but overall growth is likely to remain within the 8–9% range.

Kraft Paper to Grow in Line with Corrugation Demand

Kraft paper, a critical component of the paper sector, is also expected to show strong growth. Mr. Mehta estimated that Kraft paper demand will increase by 7.5–8%, although some industry opinions suggest it could reach up to 9%.

He highlighted the strategic importance of Kraft paper, especially in the context of corrugation. As JK Paper Ltd. continues to strengthen its position as India’s largest corrugator, understanding and focusing on Kraft paper becomes even more critical. Corrugated packaging relies heavily on Kraft paper, making it a vital segment for future growth.

Newsprint Faces Decline

In contrast to other segments, newsprint is unlikely to grow and may even experience negative growth. This trend aligns with global patterns, where declining newspaper circulation and increasing digital consumption continue to impact demand.

Coated Paper and Specialty Grades

Addressing questions on coated paper, Mr. Mehta reiterated that it is expected to grow in tandem with the broader writing and printing segment, at around 1–2%. In some cases, growth may range between 1.5–2%, depending on application shifts and price-driven demand changes. He noted that there is often a shift between different paper types, influenced by both pricing and usage requirements.

Tissue Paper to Witness High Growth

One of the most promising segments identified in the analysis is tissue paper. Mr. Mehta projected a robust growth rate of 12–15%, attributing it primarily to the small base size of the Indian market and evolving consumer behavior.

He pointed out that increased exposure to global lifestyles is influencing domestic consumption patterns. With many Indian families having members residing in Western countries, there is a noticeable transfer of habits, including the use of tissue paper in households.

Additionally, the rapid growth of the tourism and hospitality sector is expected to significantly boost tissue demand. India is witnessing one of the highest growth rates in hotel room capacity globally, and this expansion directly translates into increased tissue consumption across hotels and related establishments.

Mixed Outlook for Specialty Papers

The outlook for specialty papers remains mixed. Cheque paper, for instance, is unlikely to grow significantly due to the widespread adoption of digital payment systems such as RTGS, online banking, and direct bank-to-bank transfers. While demand may remain stable in the short term, long-term growth appears limited.

Other specialty grades like bond paper and ledger paper are expected to grow modestly at around 2–3%. These categories continue to serve niche applications but are unlikely to see significant expansion.

Food Packaging Papers to Grow Alongside Packaging Board

In the food packaging segment, products such as greaseproof and glassine paper are expected to grow at 8–10%. Mr. Mehta linked their growth directly to the broader packaging board segment, as they serve similar applications and benefit from the same underlying demand drivers.

Structured Approach Key to Understanding Future Trends

Throughout his address, Mr. Mehta emphasized the importance of analyzing the paper industry in a structured manner. By focusing on category-wise demand, application trends, and macroeconomic factors, stakeholders can gain a clearer understanding of future opportunities and challenges.

His insights underline a critical shift within the industry: while traditional segments like writing, printing, and newsprint face slower growth or decline, emerging areas such as packaging, tissue, and specialty applications are set to drive the next phase of expansion.

Conclusion

Mr. Mehta’s comprehensive analysis presents a balanced and realistic outlook for the paper industry. With an overall growth rate of 6–7% projected over the next five years, the sector remains on a steady growth path. However, the divergence in segment-wise performance highlights the need for strategic focus and adaptability.

As sustainability trends, changing consumer habits, and evolving market dynamics continue to reshape the industry, companies that align with high-growth segments such as packaging and tissue are likely to gain a competitive edge. Meanwhile, traditional segments will need to innovate and adapt to maintain relevance in an increasingly digital world.

The webinar had many known traders, including FPTA President Mr. Rajesh Jain and Hon. Treasurer Mr. Kunal Shamji Karia, along with other dignitaries.

Published at : Apr 11, 2026 01:20 PM (IST)

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