Review and Outlook of the Indian Paper Industry: Rising Average Prices and Volume Growth by FY30 – Insights from CRISIL Intelligence

Review and Outlook of the Indian Paper Industry: Rising Average Prices and Volume Growth by FY30 – Insights from CRISIL Intelligence

Indian paper industry expected to grow at 4.5-5.5% CAGR to reach 28.0-30.0 million tonnes in volume by FY30

The Pulp and Paper Times

The Indian paper industry has grown from 18.6 million tonnes in FY19 to 22.5-23.0 million tonnes in FY25. During this period, it has grown at a CAGR of 3-4%, with the paperboard segment being the main contributor to this growth fuelled by increasing demand from E-commerce, food and beverage industries, as well as the need for sustainable packaging solutions. In addition to this, growth can be attributed to India's growing economy, rising consumer spending, and government initiatives promoting paper and paper products such as the ban on single-use-plastics. From FY25 to FY30, the Indian paper industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5-5.5% and thereby reach a size of 28.0 -30.0 million tonnes in FY30. Demand will be led by healthy growth in paperboard volume, which is expected to clock 6-8% CAGR over FY25 to FY30. This growth would be driven by increased volumes in end-user segments such as household appliances, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), ready-made garments, pharmaceuticals, e-commerce, etc. W&P demand is expected to increase at a modest 1-3% CAGR over FY25 to FY30. Specialty paper is expected to log a 6-8% CAGR over FY25 to FY30. All in all, the packaging paper / board segment is expected to see its share rise from 65% in FY25 to 68-71% in FY30. While Newsprint and writing and printing paper is expected to see its share diminish from 5% to 3-4% and 23% to 19-21% respectively during the same period.

Writing and Printing (W&P) paper:

Uncoated paper expected to maintain its estimated share of 84% in volume terms in the W&P segment till FY30

In the Writing and Printing segment, uncoated paper dominated the market with an estimated share of 84% in FY25, while coated paper accounted for the remaining 16%. Looking ahead, the share of both types of W&P paper is expected to remain relatively stable at 84-85% and 15-16% respectively, although uncoated paper is anticipated to grow at a faster pace due to increasing demand from the education and office supplies sectors, as well as its relatively lower cost compared to coated paper.

Within the uncoated paper segment, Creamwove/low bright maplitho held a significant share of 45% in terms of volume in FY25. However, its share is expected to decline marginally to 44-45% in FY30 due to the decreased use in business stationery including letterheads, envelops etc. Maplitho paper with high brightness (88+ brightness) saw its share decrease from 35% in FY25 to 34-35% in FY30, largely attributed to the rising competition from digital media and the subsequent decline in demand for high-end printing papers. Having said that, with new education policy coming to effect and a gradual rise in education spend by the government (~20% higher spend between fiscals 2020 and 2023 compared with the previous three fiscals) and increased thrust on education (through initiatives such as Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan/Education for All) are likely to support demand for creamwove and maplitho paper.

On the other hand, copier paper is expected to experience a slight increase in its share, rising from 20% in FY25 to 21-22% in FY30, driven by the ongoing demand for everyday printing and copying needs in educational institutions.

Packaging paper / board:

Packaging paper / board segment expected to grow from 14.7-15.1 MT in FY25 to 20.1 20.6 MT in FY30

The packaging paper/board segment, which grew at a CAGR of ~8% from FY19 to FY25, is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~6-7% from FY25 to FY30 on the back of growth in the paperboard sub-segment, which is expected to see its share in the packaging paper/board segment rise from 42% in FY25 to 42-44% in FY30. This growth is driven by increasing demand for premium and sustainable packaging solutions, particularly in the e-commerce and food packaging industries, where paperboard is preferred for its durability, printability, and eco-friendliness.

Meanwhile, the kraft paper/board sub-segment, though expected to see its share decrease from ~58% in FY25 to 56-58% in FY30, is expected to see growth in volume of ~5-7% from 8.6-8.6 MT in FY25 to 11.4-11.8 MT in FY30. The growth is being led by flexible packaging used in the E-commerce industry and the usage of sustainable packaging solutions, such as biodegradable and compostable packaging.

Low BF(<35) Kraft paper estimated to have a share of 79% in the kraft paper sub segment in FY25

The Kraft paper sub-segment is estimated to have been dominated by low Bursting Factor (BF) (<35BF) Kraft paper at 79% in FY25, which is primarily used for applications such as packaging, wrapping, and bagging of products like food, groceries, and other consumer goods. Low BF Kraft paper is preferred for these applications due to its good printability and affordability, making it an ideal material for packaging products that require a balance of cost and performance. On the other hand, High Bursting Factor (>=35BF) Kraft paper had an estimated share of 21% in FY25 and is typically used for more demanding applications such as heavy-duty packaging. industrial packaging, and shipping sacks, where its higher bursting strength provides improved resistance to punctures and tears.

Going forward, the share of both the sub segments of kraft paper is expected to remain more or less same with the Low BF kraft paper expected to have a share of 78-80% in FY30 while the high BF kraft paper is expected to have a share of 20-22% in FY30.

Domestic W&P average prices grew from Rs. 58.4 per kg in FY19 to Rs. 65.8 per kg in FY25

Domestic W&P prices (average price of import and export prices of coated and uncoated paper) are estimated to have corrected by -21% on-year in fiscal 2024 from the highs of fiscal 2023 in movement with the falling trend of pulp prices. The excess supply in the market amidst tepid demand is likely to keep prices in moderation for fiscal 2025. Overall, the W&P prices have grown from Rs. 58.4 per kg in FY19 to Rs. 65.8 per kg in FY25 growing at a CAGR of 2% from FY19 to FY25.

Specialty paper: 

Cupstock paper had the highest share in the speciality paper segment at 39% in FY25E

Cupstock paper, a type of specialty paper designed specifically for manufacturing paper cups, is a crucial component in the packaging industry. It is typically made from a combination of wood pulp and other materials, and is characterized by its high strength, water resistance, and printability. As a key segment in the specialty paper market, cup stock paper accounted for 39% of the market share, followed by MG Variety/Poster at 27%, and Tissue at 34% in FY25. Going forward, the tissue paper segment is expected to grow the fastest within the specialty paper segment at 8-10% on account of increased focus on hygiene and health and reach a share of 39-40% in FY30. The Cupstock segment is expected to grow at 6-8% from FY25 to FY30 on account of increasing consumer preference for sustainable and eco-friendly packaging solutions, particularly in the food and beverage industry, and expected to maintain its share of ~39-40% in FY30. While the MG Variety / Poster paper segment is expected to see its share fall from 27% in FY25 to 21-23% in FY30. Overall, the specialty paper segment is expected to exhibit a growth of 6-7% from 0.95-1.05 MT in FY25 to 1.35-1.45 MT in FY30 mainly attributed to the increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly packaging solutions, and rising awareness about the environmental impact of single use plastics.

Published at : Jul 23, 2026 06:25 AM (IST)

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